For the second quarter in a row, more people left Canada than the country added — and the people doing the leaving included a record number of citizens and permanent residents. Statistics Canada's June 17 release put hard numbers on a trend that's been building for two years: 30,092 Canadian citizens and permanent residents emigrated in the first quarter of 2026, the highest first-quarter figure ever recorded, while the overall population shrank by 55,025 to an estimated 41,417,056 as of April 1.
If you're planning to immigrate to Canada — or you're already here on a temporary permit trying to make it permanent — this is the backdrop to every headline you've read about smaller draws and lower targets. Here's what the data actually says, and what it changes for your plan.
What the data shows
The numbers come from Statistics Canada's quarterly demographic estimates (Table 17-10-0040-01), released June 17, 2026, covering January 1 to April 1.
| Q1 2026 component | Figure |
|---|---|
| Citizens & PRs who emigrated | 30,092 (record Q1) |
| Returning emigrants | 9,952 |
| Net emigration | 20,140 |
| New permanent residents admitted | 83,149 |
| Net population change | −55,025 |
| Estimated population (April 1, 2026) | 41,417,056 |
Two things make this release stand out. First, the 30,092 emigrants is the largest first-quarter departure in Statistics Canada's records — and it sits on top of a full-year 2025 total of 120,640 emigrants, the highest annual figure since the data series began in 1952. On a net basis (departures minus people who moved back), 2025 lost 65,706 residents — also an all-time record, edging past the 1997 peak of 62,803 from the tech brain-drain era. Add it up and more than 150,000 citizens and PRs have emigrated over the last five quarters.
Second, this is the second straight quarter of outright population decline, following a drop of 103,504 in the final quarter of 2025. A growing country that suddenly stops growing is unusual. One that shrinks twice in a row hasn't happened in modern Canadian history.
The bigger force: temporary residents are leaving fast
The emigration of citizens and PRs grabs the headline, but the larger number is happening one tier down — among temporary residents (students, workers, and visitors).
| Quarter | Temp residents in | Temp residents out | Net change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 2026 | 81,380 | 199,259 | −117,879 |
| Q4 2025 | 77,084 | 248,380 | −171,296 |
| Q3 2025 | 163,026 | 339,505 | −176,479 |
Canada's temporary resident population peaked at 3,149,131 in the third quarter of 2024. By April 1, 2026 it had fallen to 2,558,562 — a drop of 590,569 in six quarters. That's not an accident. The 2026–2028 levels plan deliberately cut temporary resident arrivals from 673,650 in 2025 to 385,000 in 2026 (a 43% reduction), and roughly 1.9 million permits are set to expire across 2026, with many holders unable to renew or transition. Fewer people are being let in the front door while a large cohort ages out the back.
This matters because temporary residents are the pool most of Canada's permanent residents are now drawn from. When that pool drains faster than it refills, it reshapes who's competing for PR — and how hard the government works to keep the people already here.
Why people are leaving
Statistics Canada doesn't track destination countries or reasons in this release, but the drivers analysts consistently point to are familiar: housing and cost-of-living pressure in the big employment centres, a widening after-tax income gap with the United States for high earners, long health-care wait times, and — for temporary residents specifically — a deliberate federal drawdown through study-permit caps, tighter work-permit rules, and expanded enforcement powers under Bill C-12. The remote-work era also widened the menu of countries a mobile professional can move to without changing jobs.
The point for an applicant isn't the why — it's the scale. When net emigration runs above 60,000 a year, Canada has to admit roughly 60,000 additional immigrants annually just to hold its population flat, before even accounting for an aging domestic population. That math is the entire reason this data is relevant to you.
What this means for you
If you're applying for PR from abroad: the headline target hasn't moved — Canada is still planning around 380,000 permanent residents a year, with economic-class immigrants set to make up about 64% of admissions by 2027. The population numbers don't lower that bar, but they do change the politics around it. As we covered when the Prime Minister linked the cuts to the recession, a shrinking population is a strong argument against cutting targets further — which is mild good news if your worry was another round of reductions before 2028. Your job is unchanged: maximize your CRS score and watch the draw trends, because the economic class is still where the spots are.
If you're already in Canada on a study or work permit: read the retention signal carefully. Ottawa is watching the same exodus you are, and its stated fix is to keep the temporary residents who are already integrated — which is why recent draws and program design keep tilting toward in-Canada work experience, healthcare, and provincial nominees. The strategic move is to lock in a permanent pathway before your permit expires, not after. Map your route now — whether that's the Canadian Experience Class, a provincial nomination, or the TR-to-PR pathway — and don't let maintained status lapse while you do it.
If you're weighing whether Canada is still worth it: the same affordability and wage pressures pushing people out are real, and worth factoring into your decision with eyes open. But a tighter, smaller intake also means less competition in some lanes over time as the temporary-resident pool shrinks. This is a planning input, not a verdict.
The single most useful thing this data tells a current temporary resident is timing. With roughly 1.9 million permits expiring across 2026 and a government openly prioritizing retention, the candidates who convert to PR will overwhelmingly be the ones who started their permanent application while their status was still valid. If your permit expires within the next 12 months, treat your PR pathway as the urgent project — get your language test, credential assessment, and reference letters done now, so an invitation doesn't catch you with an expiring permit and an incomplete file.
A few caveats on the numbers
These are preliminary estimates. Statistics Canada has flagged that recent policy changes — including work- and study-permit extensions announced in March 2026 — could revise the temporary-resident counts when updated figures are published in September 2026. There's also a methodology note worth knowing: the agency broadened its definition of "emigrant" in late 2016, so raw emigrant counts before and after that point aren't directly comparable. Net emigration, however, is consistent across the full series — and on that measure, 2025 is the highest on record.
None of the caveats change the direction. Canada is, for now, losing population, and the people leaving include more citizens and permanent residents than ever recorded. For the broader picture on how intake and backlogs fit together, see our breakdown of Canada's arrivals and backlog data and the 2026–2028 immigration levels plan.
Where to go next
Immigration Levels Plan 2026–2028 | Carney links the cuts to recession | TR-to-PR pathway | PNP guide | CRS Calculator | All Express Entry Draws
Sources
- Statistics Canada — The Daily: Canada's population estimates, first quarter 2026 (June 17, 2026)
- Statistics Canada — Table 17-10-0040-01, Estimates of the components of international migration, quarterly
- Statistics Canada — Table 17-10-0020-01, Estimates of interprovincial migration, quarterly