Forecast accuracy

Every forecast backtested against real IRCC draws. Full transparency — no cherry-picking.

Source: IRCC

Accuracy

66%

257 of 388 within range

Avg error

23 pts

Distance from center estimate

Draws tested

388

With 3+ prior draws in category

Method

EMA + slope

Exponential moving average

How we test

For each historical draw, we run the forecast model using only data available before that draw. The model generates a cutoff reference range (center estimate +/- spread based on recent variance). If the actual cutoff falls within that range, it counts as accurate. No hindsight, no adjustments, no cherry-picking.

Recent forecasts vs. actuals

Draw	Type	Forecast	Actual	Result
#425 2026-07-09	French language	398–418	420	Off by 12
#424 2026-07-07	Canadian Experience Class	506–526	517	Within range
#423 2026-07-06	Provincial Nominee	737–791	708	Off by 56
#422 2026-06-25	Healthcare occupations	460–480	475	Within range
#420 2026-06-23	Canadian Experience Class	506–526	516	Within range
#419 2026-06-22	Provincial Nominee	786–806	730	Off by 66
#418 2026-05-28	French language	395–415	409	Within range
#417 2026-05-27	Canadian Experience Class	503–523	518	Within range
#416 2026-05-25	Provincial Nominee	772–816	805	Within range
#415 2026-05-11	Provincial Nominee	758–828	798	Within range
#414 2026-04-29	French language	399–419	400	Within range
#413 2026-04-28	Canadian Experience Class	502–522	514	Within range
#412 2026-04-27	Provincial Nominee	744–812	795	Within range
#411 2026-04-15	French language	387–407	419	Off by 22
#410 2026-04-14	Canadian Experience Class	499–519	515	Within range
#409 2026-04-13	Provincial Nominee	735–801	786	Within range
#408 2026-04-02	Trade occupations	430–506	477	Within range
#407 2026-03-31	Canadian Experience Class	499–519	509	Within range
#406 2026-03-30	Provincial Nominee	713–763	802	Off by 64
#405 2026-03-18	French language	391–411	393	Within range
#404 2026-03-17	Canadian Experience Class	499–519	507	Within range
#403 2026-03-16	Provincial Nominee	713–771	742	Within range
#401 2026-03-04	French language	391–415	397	Within range
#400 2026-03-03	Canadian Experience Class	500–520	508	Within range
#399 2026-03-02	Provincial Nominee	741–793	710	Off by 57
#398 2026-02-20	Healthcare occupations	462–482	467	Within range
#396 2026-02-17	Canadian Experience Class	502–522	508	Within range
#395 2026-02-16	Provincial Nominee	728–756	789	Off by 47
#394 2026-02-06	French language	389–423	400	Within range
#393 2026-02-03	Provincial Nominee	721–753	749	Within range
#392 2026-01-21	Canadian Experience Class	505–525	509	Within range
#391 2026-01-20	Provincial Nominee	709–737	746	Off by 23
#390 2026-01-07	Canadian Experience Class	510–530	511	Within range
#389 2026-01-05	Provincial Nominee	709–749	711	Within range
#388 2025-12-17	French language	386–438	399	Within range
#387 2025-12-16	Canadian Experience Class	516–536	515	Off by 11
#386 2025-12-15	Provincial Nominee	699–753	731	Within range
#385 2025-12-11	Healthcare occupations	451–479	476	Within range
#384 2025-12-10	Canadian Experience Class	522–542	520	Off by 12
#383 2025-12-08	Provincial Nominee	667–771	729	Within range
#382 2025-11-28	French language	396–464	408	Within range
#381 2025-11-26	Canadian Experience Class	522–542	531	Within range
#380 2025-11-25	Provincial Nominee	715–799	699	Off by 58
#379 2025-11-14	Healthcare occupations	453–487	462	Within range
#378 2025-11-12	Canadian Experience Class	524–544	533	Within range
#377 2025-11-10	Provincial Nominee	741–817	738	Off by 41
#376 2025-10-29	French language	409–477	416	Within range
#375 2025-10-28	Canadian Experience Class	524–544	533	Within range
#374 2025-10-27	Provincial Nominee	756–830	761	Within range
#373 2025-10-15	Healthcare occupations	457–495	472	Within range

Showing latest 50 of 388 backtested draws

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Based on the same model, applied to current data.

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