Forecast accuracy

Every forecast backtested against real IRCC draws. Full transparency — no cherry-picking.

Source: IRCC

Accuracy

66%

271 of 409 within range

Avg error

23 pts

Distance from center estimate

Draws tested

409

With 3+ prior draws in category

Method

EMA + slope

Exponential moving average

How we test

For each historical draw, we run the forecast model using only data available before that draw. The model generates a cutoff reference range (center estimate +/- spread based on recent variance). If the actual cutoff falls within that range, it counts as accurate. No hindsight, no adjustments, no cherry-picking.

Recent forecasts vs. actuals

Draw	Type	Forecast	Actual	Result
#450 2026-10-16	French language	376–402	435	Off by 46
#449 2026-10-15	Canadian Experience Class	509–529	519	Within range
#448 2026-10-13	Provincial Nominee	699–749	772	Off by 48
#447 2026-10-01	Trade occupations	442–504	476	Within range
#446 2026-09-29	Canadian Experience Class	510–530	518	Within range
#445 2026-09-28	Provincial Nominee	704–754	725	Within range
#443 2026-09-15	Canadian Experience Class	510–530	519	Within range
#442 2026-09-14	Provincial Nominee	704–760	734	Within range
#441 2026-09-04	Healthcare occupations	463–483	475	Within range
#439 2026-09-01	Canadian Experience Class	509–529	521	Within range
#438 2026-08-31	Provincial Nominee	741–783	697	Off by 65
#437 2026-08-19	French language	389–409	382	Off by 17
#436 2026-08-18	Canadian Experience Class	506–526	523	Within range
#435 2026-08-17	Provincial Nominee	718–784	760	Within range
#434 2026-08-07	Transport occupations	422–442	470	Off by 38
#433 2026-08-06	French language	396–416	391	Off by 15
#432 2026-08-05	Canadian Experience Class	506–526	516	Within range
#431 2026-08-04	Provincial Nominee	696–772	768	Within range
#429 2026-07-22	French language	403–425	399	Off by 15
#428 2026-07-21	Canadian Experience Class	506–526	516	Within range
#427 2026-07-20	Provincial Nominee	693–773	744	Within range
#425 2026-07-09	French language	398–418	420	Off by 12
#424 2026-07-07	Canadian Experience Class	506–526	517	Within range
#423 2026-07-06	Provincial Nominee	737–791	708	Off by 56
#422 2026-06-25	Healthcare occupations	460–480	475	Within range
#420 2026-06-23	Canadian Experience Class	506–526	516	Within range
#419 2026-06-22	Provincial Nominee	786–806	730	Off by 66
#418 2026-05-28	French language	395–415	409	Within range
#417 2026-05-27	Canadian Experience Class	503–523	518	Within range
#416 2026-05-25	Provincial Nominee	772–816	805	Within range
#415 2026-05-11	Provincial Nominee	758–828	798	Within range
#414 2026-04-29	French language	399–419	400	Within range
#413 2026-04-28	Canadian Experience Class	502–522	514	Within range
#412 2026-04-27	Provincial Nominee	744–812	795	Within range
#411 2026-04-15	French language	387–407	419	Off by 22
#410 2026-04-14	Canadian Experience Class	499–519	515	Within range
#409 2026-04-13	Provincial Nominee	735–801	786	Within range
#408 2026-04-02	Trade occupations	430–506	477	Within range
#407 2026-03-31	Canadian Experience Class	499–519	509	Within range
#406 2026-03-30	Provincial Nominee	713–763	802	Off by 64
#405 2026-03-18	French language	391–411	393	Within range
#404 2026-03-17	Canadian Experience Class	499–519	507	Within range
#403 2026-03-16	Provincial Nominee	713–771	742	Within range
#401 2026-03-04	French language	391–415	397	Within range
#400 2026-03-03	Canadian Experience Class	500–520	508	Within range
#399 2026-03-02	Provincial Nominee	741–793	710	Off by 57
#398 2026-02-20	Healthcare occupations	462–482	467	Within range
#396 2026-02-17	Canadian Experience Class	502–522	508	Within range
#395 2026-02-16	Provincial Nominee	728–756	789	Off by 47
#394 2026-02-06	French language	389–423	400	Within range

Showing latest 50 of 409 backtested draws

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Based on the same model, applied to current data.

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